68% Odds Stocks Close Higher This Year: Headlines Be Damned
FxRoy
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June 13, 2026
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There's a 68 percent chance the S&P 500 finishes 2024 in positive territory. That figure caught me a bit off guard given how much gloom has filled screens lately.
The Stat That Holds Up
Recent data from long-run probability models puts the odds of a higher close at the end of December at roughly two in three. This lines up with patterns seen in past mid-election years when volatility spiked but recovery followed.
Why does that matter? Short-term scares rarely rewrite the full-year script. Markets have posted gains in 68 percent of calendar years since 1926, and the current setup sits close to that baseline.
Noise Versus the Longer Tape
Headlines on rate paths and geopolitics continue to dominate feeds. Yet the same models show that daily distractions have historically subtracted more from returns than they added when investors chased every twist.
Volatility persists.
The market took a hit in early August on growth fears, then clawed back most of the ground. Similar shakeouts in 2019 and 2021 ended with the index higher by year-end in both cases.
What Traders Are Pricing Now
Futures markets show modest net long exposure in equity indices. Positioning isn't stretched, which leaves room for further upside if the 68 percent path holds. Breadth has improved since September, with more sectors joining the advance.
Still, the number leaves room for a flat or lower finish. Nothing in the data guarantees the outcome.
Questions That Remain
Will fresh inflation prints or central-bank comments shift the probabilities by more than a few points? And how much weight should investors give to the fact that election-year returns often cluster in the final quarter?
Those variables sit outside the base model. Anyone positioned for a year-end rally has seen the odds move their way so far, but the tape can change fast.
Watch position sizing if the next data round lands hot. The 68 percent edge is real on paper; it just doesn't remove the chance that this year lands in the other 32.