Ethereum at $2,695: Traders Eye $2,800 Wall Before Glamsterdam Test
FxRoy
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October 4, 2026
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Ethereum is trading right around $2,695 and the market is waiting to see if it can finally clear $2,800 without getting smacked back down.
The Level That's Holding Everything Back
That $2,800 mark has acted like a ceiling for weeks. Every time price edges toward it, selling shows up and the pair drops back into the mid-$2,600s. It's not a dramatic rejection, but it's consistent enough that leveraged longs keep getting caught leaning the wrong way.
Why does that matter right now? Because a clean break above $2,800 would open the door to $2,950 and then $3,000 in short order. Without it, we're probably looking at another week of chopping between $2,550 and $2,750.
Why October 6 Suddenly Feels Important
The Glamsterdam testnet upgrade lands on the sixth. It's the kind of catalyst that can shift sentiment fast if it goes smoothly. Traders aren't pricing in a huge move yet, but they've seen how these test runs can spark short-covering when the headlines land positive.
At the same time, spot ETF flows remain the quiet driver. We've seen net inflows most sessions this month, yet the size isn't big enough to overwhelm the resistance overhead. Still, the steady buying keeps the floor from giving way entirely.
Positioning Looks Mixed and Nervous
Longs are crowded above $2,700, while shorts have been adding on every bounce to $2,780. That setup means any decisive move either direction will probably squeeze someone hard. The funding rates aren't extreme, which tells you the leverage isn't insane yet, but it's building.
If you've been watching ETH versus risk-sensitive FX pairs like the Australian dollar, you already know the correlation has tightened again. A clean ETH rally tends to put bids under commodity currencies, and the reverse happens fast on any selloff.
The numbers that matter most today are simple: $2,800 resistance, $2,550 support, and whatever the ETF flow print shows at the close. Everything else is noise until one of those levels gives.
It's worth remembering that October has delivered $3,000 before, but it didn't stick. There's no guarantee this time is different, and anyone sizing up for a quick run higher should keep position size modest while the resistance stays intact.