Solana Holds $121 as Alpenglow Upgrade Meets ETF Flows
FxRoy
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October 4, 2026
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Solana sits near 121 dollars and the next few weeks look decisive. The market already digested the initial hype around the Alpenglow upgrade, so fresh flows from ETF approvals will decide if momentum returns.
Why 124-125 Resistance Is the Gatekeeper
Price has tested that zone twice in the past month and both times sellers appeared quickly. A clean break above 125 would open room toward 135, then 148 if volume follows through. Without it, the range stays tight and October targets slip further out.
Resistance holds firm.
ETF Flows Add a New Variable
Recent ETF inflows have been steadier than many expected, though still modest compared with Bitcoin products. That steady drip matters because it brings longer-horizon buyers who are less likely to dump on every 2 percent dip. If those flows pick up after the next batch of filings, Solana could catch the market off guard on the upside.
Alpenglow Testing Timeline Matters
The upgrade itself is not priced in as a guaranteed catalyst anymore. Developers have flagged several testnet checkpoints through mid-October, and any delay or performance hiccup could weigh on sentiment. Conversely, smooth results would give bulls a fresh narrative to push through the 125 level.
How This Fits the Wider Crypto Picture
Bitcoin dominance has eased a touch lately, which usually gives altcoins breathing room. Solana’s beta to Bitcoin remains high, so any renewed risk-on move in majors would help. Still, the pair has underperformed some smaller caps recently, which suggests conviction is not yet broad-based.
What Traders Are Watching Next
Volume on the 4-hour chart needs to expand on any push above 125. Lower time-frame traders are also eyeing funding rates; stretched longs could invite a quick shakeout even if the larger trend stays intact. Position sizing here is worth keeping modest until the resistance gives way.
October remains the window most analysts are circling, but nothing is guaranteed and stop levels should stay tight if the data disappoints.